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March 16, 2005


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I for one have been posting about this being bad for the Cable Card TiVo and taking the razor sharp 'do or die" focus off the software initiatives and Cable Card deadline for Cable Card 2 deployment. I do still think that to be the case, but it is a viewpoint from a consumer of standalone TiVos who is not on Comcast.

It all remains to be seen how far Comcast goes in making use of TiVo features but you are forgetting two important things.

1. Comcast is trying to stop the bleeding of subscribers to Satellite like DirectTV. To use this new TiVo DVR effectively in that fight Comcast is very likely to open up HMO and Multi Room Viewing. I suspect they will embrace certain HME apps as well. An HME app to buy stuff from Best Buy is a win all around. Netflix downl;oads and TiVoToGo are less certain but if they determine that this is needed as well to pull subs back to Comcast then they will do it. If Comcast just wanted a plain Jane DVR box then why make a deal with TiVo, Comcast already had that. Now granted Comcast has leased only like 200,000 DVRs so far but I doubt Comcast wanted TiVo just to make a plain DVR. Software innovation at TiVo will continue.

2. The sharing of revenue from Ads is not very much of a bottom line number with DirectTV. I suspect that can be much more of a bottom line number with Comcast especially since TiVo will be allowed to present the ads on all Comcast DVRs not just TiVo branded ones. This changes the equation significantly from a 50 cents to a buck a box into a real growth opportunity for the new way to sell advertising now that 30 second ad spots are old news.

the only real downside is delay in the Cable Card TiVo, which is significant to me but TiVo will be around and still making the best DVR software when one finally comes out. Of course if TiVo makes a deal with Time Warner and Time Warner enables the bells and whistles on the TiVo as well, then I wont need a Cable Card TiVo anyway

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